Football Based on Actual Math™

A Different Way to Love College Football

My friend Patrick created a fantasy league where you draft entire teams instead of players. It ran for years, went on hiatus during the pandemic, and we brought it back together in 2025. I've been building models to find draft edges since 2016—first in Excel, now with AI. The math was fun. Playing with friends was the point.

Patrick's League, Powered by Math

Patrick is a professional data scientist. He saw that traditional fantasy football never quite fit college—too many teams, too much chaos, too hard to track individual players across 134 programs. So he created something different: draft entire teams, not players. Track whole seasons, not weekly lineups. He built the scoring system, the probability models, the whole framework. The league ran from 2016 through 2019 before the pandemic paused everything.

I'm a hobbyist in the modeling space, but I've always loved finding edges. My early contributions were Excel spreadsheets—ESPN FPI data, custom formulas layering in the league's specific scoring strategy. The 2019 model took first and second place (my wife used it too). That same approach won again when we brought the league back in 2025.

From Excel to Platform

In 2025, I tried to build a tech platform for the league—data pipelines, simulation tools, a place to host projections and track the season. Patrick brings the real data science; I wanted to contribute on the engineering side. It didn't work as well as I'd hoped (the platform, not the league), but I'm planning to improve it for 2026.

That project changed everything anyway. Building something real with AI—not just asking questions but actually creating—sparked an interest that's reshaped my career. The experience is explored more deeply in the Human-Centered AI section.

The Joy Is Real

The Math

From Excel formulas to Quasi-Monte Carlo simulations. Finding edges in the data, revealing which teams the market undervalues—this is genuinely fun. No apologies.

The Chaos

College football's unpredictability creates opportunities. 134 teams means more chances to find value than any other sport. The variance is a feature.

The Discovery

Caring about teams you'd never otherwise notice. Learning about programs, conferences, storylines you'd have missed. The season becomes richer.

The People

Smart friends who appreciate both math and football, debating strategy all season. Patrick built the league because he wanted us to play together. Everything else serves that.

What It Actually Feels Like

Draft 12 teams in August. By October, you're checking scores for games you didn't know existed. By November, you have genuine emotional investment in whether Ball State beats Kent State on a random Wednesday night. By January, the bowl season feels like a personal playoff. The entire landscape of college football becomes yours.

Simple Structure, Deep Strategy

Patrick's scoring system: draft in August, track through January. Teams earn points for wins (bonus for ranked opponents), conference championships, and bowl victories. No weekly lineup decisions—just draft smart and enjoy having skin in every Saturday.

12
Teams per roster
2
Max per conference
134
FBS teams to choose from

The conference diversity rule (max 2 teams per conference) is what makes it work. You can't just stack SEC teams—you have to find value across the entire landscape. That's where the models help: revealing which teams offer upside beyond what consensus rankings suggest.

K-STATE

Kansas State Forever

I grew up in Kansas. Bill Snyder built something from nothing. The model might have a slight bias toward purple. This is not a bug.